Party loyalty: Will you vote the same in 2015 as you did in 2010?

Just 38% of those who voted for the Liberal Democrats in 2010 plan to vote for the party at the General Election in 2015 according to a new Populus poll.

In contrast, 76% of 2010 Labour voters and 67% of 2010 Conservative voters said they intend to stick with their party.

What is perhaps more interesting is where the poll suggests former Liberal Democrats will be casting their vote. It suggested that 23% would switch to Labour, 7% to Conservatives, 1% to SNP, 5% to UKIP and 3% to The Green Party.

21% though said that they were still not decided.

A few points to draw out of this:

  • The Labour Party remain the default party for voters on the left (assuming that the Lib Dems who switched would consider themselves “left wing” or “centre left”).
  • The Green Party strategy of picking up pissed off Lib Dem voters doesn’t appear to be working.
  • UKIP seem to be able to pick up votes all over the political spectrum despite attracting the extreme edges of right wing politics as candidates.
  • There is still a lot to play for the Lib Dems in convincing previous voters  who are now unsure to back them again.
  • Both Labour and Conservatives enjoy a fixed following that will back them whatever the weather (although 12% of 2010 Conservative voters said they would back UKIP in 2015).

2015 however remains a long way off. In the meantime a separate (much larger) poll for the 2014 European Elections threw up some equally interesting results (although still not good reading for the Lib Dems).

A recent You Gov study found that:

“Labour would win the election with 30% of the vote, UKIP would come second with 25%, the Conservatives third with 23%, Greens fourth with 12%, and the Lib Dems last with 10%.”

Who do you plan to vote for in 2014 and 2015? Is it the same as 2010?

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