The Green Party are, for the first time, consistently ahead of the Liberal Democrats in YouGov polling.
The Green Party have in the past been level pegging or just beating the Liberal Democrats. But as I wrote before, it would be disingenuous to suggest that ‘Greens are ahead of the Lib Dems’ in the polls in general.
In the most recent three pollings for YouGov however the Greens have finished ahead of the Lib Dems on each occasion (see data set 1, 2, and 3).
It is interesting to note that in these last three polls, the Green Party are picking up an average of 18% of those who voted Lib Dem in 2010. In other words, just under one in five former Lib Dem voters are now planning on voting Green.
This will have a huge impact on Labour (who themselves are losing 4% of their 2010 vote to the Greens) who are relying on the exodus from the Lib Dems to bolster their stuttering performance in the polls.
It is important to note however that this is just one polling company – when we look at the average across different companies we can see the Lib Dems maintaining a lead of 2% over the Greens (see UK polling report).
That said, this is yet another milestone on a ‘Green surge’ that is increasingly becoming hard for the political establishment to ignore.
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As a keen supporter of the Green Party, Steve has recently trumpeted what he regards as a surge in their support. This is perfectly reasonable, but I suspect the curse of the Lib-Dems i.e. the vagaries of our ‘first past the post’ electoral system will severely impact the Green Party as it has the Liberal Democrats. UKIP may fare better pre-election, especially where the Tory voters wish to send a message to the Conservative party, however I suspect even they will be disappointed when the result of the next General Election is published.
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Of course polling and membership do not reflect results in a FPTP system – but these are signs that Greens will do better (much better) than 2010 which saw their historic breakthrough!
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