Tag Archives: popularity

Lib Dems worst EVER YouGov ratings

The Lib Dems have dropped to their worst ever YouGov poll rating today with just 6% of those polled saying they would vote for them at the General Election. This is the worst result for the Lib Dems in a YouGov poll since the company started in 2001.

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Significantly, the Green Party are just 1% behind them on 5% and UKIP have more than doubled them on 14%.

A closer look at the statistics also spell out some worrying findings for the Lib Dems.

Firstly, a look at those who said they voted Lib Dem in 2010. 32% of them now say they plan to vote Labour, 18% Conservative, 13% UKIP, 11% Greens and just 24% said they will stay with the Lib Dems.

Compare this in contrast to Conservative or Labour who are holding onto the 76% and 84% respectively of their 2010 voters.

It is clear that the Lib Dems are struggling to keep hold of their own voters and importantly, they are also failing to pick up soft Conservative votes (only 1% of those who voted Tory in 2010 plan to vote Lib Dem in 2015).

Secondly, on the 5% of young voters (18-24) said they plan to vote Lib Dem in 2015. It is worth highlighting that this is considerably less than the 11% of 18-24 year olds that are planning on voting Green.

This could spell bad news for the Lib Dems for two reasons. One it doesn’t bode well for the long-term growth of the party (political parties, like banks and car manufactures target you when you are young hoping brand loyalty will keep you with them the rest of your life). And secondly, it could spell disaster for Lib Dems in some key seats that have large university populations (the one that jumps to mind is Clegg’s home of Sheffield).

It is important not to read too much into this. The 5% headline figure is pretty similar to what they have been polling over the last few weeks. It does though just mark a new, unwelcome, milestone for the Lib Dems in their desperate fight to regain some popularity in the polls.

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The great Ed Miliband makeover

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Last week I wrote of the ‘image’ problem that Ed Miliband – and by extension Labour – has. I highlighted the fact that the latest polls suggest just 26% of the electorate think Miliband is doing his job well and a whopping 64% think he is doing it badly.

To put it bluntly, this is not the sort of image that a potential Prime Minister in waiting wants.

Interestingly then in today’s Times ($), Sam Coates writes:

‘Labour’s new American election strategist will give Ed Miliband a makeover to make him more appealing to voters, amid jitters among senior party figures over a dip in the party’s poll ratings.’

This ‘American election strategist’ is of course the six figured salary man, Mr David Axelrod who oversaw Obama’s two election victories.

The Times article goes onto state that the Miliband makeover will,

‘look at Mr Miliband’s performance in front of the cameras. Until recently this was not a feature of Labour’s election planning. ‘There is no strategy for Ed the person,’ one senior figure said recently, despite widespread criticism of his performances. The party has been aware for several months that this is an issue. It has conducted focus groups in which members of the public were shown clips of Mr Miliband on television. The participants reacted badly.’

Or as the Daily Mail so tactfully puts it:

Ed’s dismal ratings: Four years on, he’s still less popular than Brown’

That’s right, whilst in opposition to an incredibly unpopular government, Ed Miliband is still less popular than Gordon Brown was in the dying days of the New Labour disaster.

It is interesting to see that this is on the Labour radar but one wonders, what’s the solution other than a coup d’état of the Labour Party leadership?

Can Labour win a majority in 2015 with Ed has the helm?

I don’t think so.

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UKIP – less popular but here to stay?

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I have written before about why I thought that UKIP would, like other far-right groups, rise and fall in the polls. I expected the May 2014 elections to represent their high before starting to crumble before the 2015 elections.

However, a new FT/Populus poll today shows that most of those planning to vote UKIP in May are also planning on supporting the party in 2015. This could be bad news for both Labour and Conservatives in key marginal seats. The Lib Dems however would surely gain from a strong UKIP turnout in 2015 as they fight their marginal seats against divided votes.

As Lord Ashcroft pointed out last month, these findings also question the effectiveness of the proposed Tory ‘Vote UKIP get Labour’ messaging planned for the next general election. Most UKIP voters don’t care if they get Cameron or Miliband. It would appear that a ‘they’re as bad as each other’ feeling is permeating UKIP supporters.

However, the FT/Populus poll also shows support for UKIP for the May 2014 elections at a relative low of 25%. Significantly 2 percent behind the Conservatives and 6 percent behind Labour. This is a far cry from UKIP’s aim of topping the polls in May 2014.

The FT/Populus poll also spells bad news for The Green Party giving them just a 3% share of the national vote (about half the lowest vote share they secured anywhere in England and Wales in 2009)!

You can see the detailed results here.

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