Tag Archives: polls

Lib Dems worst EVER YouGov ratings

The Lib Dems have dropped to their worst ever YouGov poll rating today with just 6% of those polled saying they would vote for them at the General Election. This is the worst result for the Lib Dems in a YouGov poll since the company started in 2001.

Lib Dem
Significantly, the Green Party are just 1% behind them on 5% and UKIP have more than doubled them on 14%.

A closer look at the statistics also spell out some worrying findings for the Lib Dems.

Firstly, a look at those who said they voted Lib Dem in 2010. 32% of them now say they plan to vote Labour, 18% Conservative, 13% UKIP, 11% Greens and just 24% said they will stay with the Lib Dems.

Compare this in contrast to Conservative or Labour who are holding onto the 76% and 84% respectively of their 2010 voters.

It is clear that the Lib Dems are struggling to keep hold of their own voters and importantly, they are also failing to pick up soft Conservative votes (only 1% of those who voted Tory in 2010 plan to vote Lib Dem in 2015).

Secondly, on the 5% of young voters (18-24) said they plan to vote Lib Dem in 2015. It is worth highlighting that this is considerably less than the 11% of 18-24 year olds that are planning on voting Green.

This could spell bad news for the Lib Dems for two reasons. One it doesn’t bode well for the long-term growth of the party (political parties, like banks and car manufactures target you when you are young hoping brand loyalty will keep you with them the rest of your life). And secondly, it could spell disaster for Lib Dems in some key seats that have large university populations (the one that jumps to mind is Clegg’s home of Sheffield).

It is important not to read too much into this. The 5% headline figure is pretty similar to what they have been polling over the last few weeks. It does though just mark a new, unwelcome, milestone for the Lib Dems in their desperate fight to regain some popularity in the polls.

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Bad news for Labour: Latest polling before European Parliament elections

Labour Conference Focuses On Leader's Speech
The latest piece of YouGov polling gives these headline figures:

We can see UKIP are just edging Labour. Bad news in itself. But I am sure Labour cannot be too happy to see The Green Party (down from their 12% high) are on 10% and just edging the Lib Dems. Let me explain why…

The breakdown of these figures show that The Green Party are picking up 19% of those who voted for the Lib Dems in 2010. Bad news for Lib Dems but also worrying for Labour. Labour are picking up a comparable 18% of 2010 Lib Dem voters – less than The Green Party. In short, Labour have failed to appeal to alienated left-wing liberals – something that is central to their general election 2015 strategy. .

This is further evidenced in the poll conducted of the Left Foot Forward readership. This poll should have, if things are going well for Labour, shown massive support for Labour. Instead it shows the Green Part picking up 34% and even the Lib Dems still claiming 17% of the vote.

As the editor of Left foot forward, James Bloodworth, noted:

This should perhaps concern Labour, as their message still appears not to be winning over many naturally left-of-centre voters – despite their recently announcing a raft of identifiably social democratic policies. 

Labour might well come out on top in these elections but it is far from a ringing endorsement.

UPDATE;

Today’s Opinium/Daily Mail poll reinforces the crux of this post showing Labour polling just 25% and The Greens increasing their share of the vote.

 

 

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How many MEPs will each party have after Thursday’s European Parliament elections?

These were the headline polling figures from today’s Sun/YouGov poll.

Greens sun poll

How will this translate though into the number of projected seats in the European Parliament?

Put simply, this poll is great news for Labour who would firstly win the largest share of the national vote and secondly see (based on projections from this polling) gain an additional 12 MEPs. This would give them 25 in total.

Although UKIP will be disappointed with not topping the polls they are projected here to win an additional 6 seats in the European Parliament. This would give them 19 in total.

The other big winners are The Green Party who comfortably beat the Lib Dems into 4th place. This would see The Green Party return an additional 5 MEPs. This would give them 7 MEPs.

The big losers are the coalition partners. The Conservatives are set to lose 11 MEPs bringing their total down to 15 while the Lib Dems are expected to lose 7 MEPs leaving them with just 4. For the Lib Dems though this might be  a relief that they have not been wiped off the board as some are predicting!

The other big loser (in every sense of the phrase) are the BNP who continue their decline and are set to lose both of their current 2 MEPs.

However, it is worth pointing out how this poll differs from current trends. As the Guardian noted, if you average the most recent five polls (excluding this Sun/Yougov one) on voting intention for the European Parliament elections UKIP come out on top. Labour come out in second place with 26.6% followed by the Tories who get 23.4%. The Greens are fourth with 8% closely followed by the Liberal Democrats with 7.4%.

Under this uniform swing projection UKIP would have the most number of MEPs (23) with Labour just behind them (22). The Conservatives would slip back to third (18). The Greens would take 4th (6) while the Lib Dems would return just 1 MEP. The BNP would of course still lose their 2 MEPs.

UPDATE:

An interesting chart from YouGov showing how polling has changed through the election campaign:

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The great Ed Miliband makeover

Ed-Miliband-006
Last week I wrote of the ‘image’ problem that Ed Miliband – and by extension Labour – has. I highlighted the fact that the latest polls suggest just 26% of the electorate think Miliband is doing his job well and a whopping 64% think he is doing it badly.

To put it bluntly, this is not the sort of image that a potential Prime Minister in waiting wants.

Interestingly then in today’s Times ($), Sam Coates writes:

‘Labour’s new American election strategist will give Ed Miliband a makeover to make him more appealing to voters, amid jitters among senior party figures over a dip in the party’s poll ratings.’

This ‘American election strategist’ is of course the six figured salary man, Mr David Axelrod who oversaw Obama’s two election victories.

The Times article goes onto state that the Miliband makeover will,

‘look at Mr Miliband’s performance in front of the cameras. Until recently this was not a feature of Labour’s election planning. ‘There is no strategy for Ed the person,’ one senior figure said recently, despite widespread criticism of his performances. The party has been aware for several months that this is an issue. It has conducted focus groups in which members of the public were shown clips of Mr Miliband on television. The participants reacted badly.’

Or as the Daily Mail so tactfully puts it:

Ed’s dismal ratings: Four years on, he’s still less popular than Brown’

That’s right, whilst in opposition to an incredibly unpopular government, Ed Miliband is still less popular than Gordon Brown was in the dying days of the New Labour disaster.

It is interesting to see that this is on the Labour radar but one wonders, what’s the solution other than a coup d’état of the Labour Party leadership?

Can Labour win a majority in 2015 with Ed has the helm?

I don’t think so.

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Are The Green Party on course to beat the Lib Dems in May’s elections? Part 3

That’s right – I am still not bored of writing about whether or not The Green Party will beat the Lib Dems in May’s elections!

On the 28th April I wrote an article essentially saying that The Green Party was on course to have a good night at the European Elections and that Lib Dems were going to get a kicking but, significantly, there was little polling to support The Green Party’s claim that they would beat the Lib Dems nationally.

I then followed this up with an article on 4th May when, for the first time, a poll was published that showed The Green Party ahead of the Liberal Democrats.

Any balanced commentator by this point would conclude that the figures were within a ‘margin of error’ and that it was next to impossible to call who will come out on top (between the Greens and Lib Dems).

This, in my mind, is still the only conclusion to reach (combined with the fact that Lib Dems will drop seats and Greens will gain).

But there is something to suggest that The Green Party might just slip past the Lib Dems. This is the trend of polls. While the Lib Dems have the numbers in their favour (more polls have shown them beating Greens than vice-versa) there is a clear recent trend of Greens climbing in the polls as the elections get closer while the Lib Dems seem to be dropping.

As Robert Lindsay on twitter pointed out (click to enlarge):

Green opinion polls
Interestingly, the same ICM/Guardian poll that puts The Green Party on 10% and Lib Dems on 7% is also the second in as many days that have put the Conservatives ahead of Labour (the other being this from Lord Ashcroft).

If you can conclude one thing from these polls for May’s elections it is this: voting under a PR system there is everything to play for regardless of the colour of your rosette.

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Seasonal ho-ho-hope for The Green Party

A new poll from YouGov shows that the majority of Brits think Father Christmas would vote for either Labour or The Green Party.

yougov

What is quite interesting about this poll however is that support tends to fall along party lines…apart for The Green Party who seem to pick up support from voters across the political spectrum.

As YouGov noted:

“A majority of Labour voters (64%), Conservative voters (59%) and UKIP voters (60%) all believe that Father Christmas would vote for the party that they support. Worryingly for the Liberal Democrats however, just 30% of their voters think Father Christmas would vote Lib Dem.”

Interestingly, 42% of those who voted Lib Dem in 2010 thought that Father Christmas would be a Green voter while just 10% of them thought he would vote Lib Dem.

Some ho-ho-hope for The Green Party and another worrying sign for the Lib Dems.

You can see the full results here.

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Why Watson was right, Corby will be “a very tough fight” for Labour

Louise Mensch MP, the current MP for Corby

Tom Watson notoriously tweeted that the Corby by-election will be “a very tough fight”. It was also reported that he was telling Labour activists to “to stress that the party expects to lose the by-election”.

This pessimistic perspective is in stark contrast to almost every commentator and poll that has predicted an easy Labour victory. I have reason to believe though that Watson might be right.

Labour requires a 1.8% swing in their favour from the Conservatives. Nationally, polls are showing that they are sat on an 8.5% swing. This would be enough to secure a Corby victory and a 7,000 Labour majority.

In addition, Lord Ashcroft has funded a Corby specific poll for the by-election. The results are clear. The New Statesman reported the poll’s findings saying, “Labour [hold] a 15-point lead over the Conservatives, with Miliband’s party on 52% and Cameron’s on 37%. The Lib Dems are on just 7% and could yet be caught by UKIP”.


So why are Labour spouting the line, “this will be a tough fight”.

Firstly, it is worth noting the makeup of the constituency. 55% of the voters live in Corby itself, an ex steel town which at least in theory should be a Labour strong-hold. The other 45% though live in small Northampton villages which have traditionally voted Conservative. Labour are aware of the need to reach out to the rural residents of the constituency. They launched their by-election campaign in Thrapston.

Corby has always been a marginal since its birth as a parliamentary constituency in 1983. This still holds true today.

The same poll in Corby that showed Labour with a 15 point lead also showed only 31% would prefer Ed Miliband to David Cameron as prime minister. Equally, it showed a “two-to-one majority favoured the government’s austerity programme over Labour’s plan for more spending and borrowing to boost the economy”.

If the Conservative campaign can press the right buttons (“need for economic austerity”, “a vote for Andy is a vote for Ed”) then it is possible that this by-election will be a lot closer than the headlines suggest. Labour are ahead at the moment but we know a good campaign can turn a constituency.

Labour knows this. They also know that from a PR perspective Labour simply cannot afford to lose this by-election.

Labour are desperately trying to forget the recent failure at the Bradford by-election.

Before the by-election Ed Miliband said, “This is a chance for the people of Bradford West to deliver a verdict on a Budget which will force millions to pay more so that millionaires can pay less”. He muttered these words assuming that voters would fall back to Labour. He was wrong.

Labour’s old foe George Galloway turned a 5,763 majority into a 10,140 Respect majority. Labour was crushed. They simply cannot afford another Bradford disaster.

The lesson here? Labour cannot assume that the Lib Dem vote will meekly fall at their feet any more than they can assume the more general anti austerity vote will fall at their feet. They have to work for it.

Watson and Labour know all too well that this will not be as easy as the media are suggesting.

Perversely for an incumbent, the ball is in the Tories court now. It is up to them to go on the offensive to win this by-election.

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