The latest piece of YouGov polling gives these headline figures:
We can see UKIP are just edging Labour. Bad news in itself. But I am sure Labour cannot be too happy to see The Green Party (down from their 12% high) are on 10% and just edging the Lib Dems. Let me explain why…
The breakdown of these figures show that The Green Party are picking up 19% of those who voted for the Lib Dems in 2010. Bad news for Lib Dems but also worrying for Labour. Labour are picking up a comparable 18% of 2010 Lib Dem voters – less than The Green Party. In short, Labour have failed to appeal to alienated left-wing liberals – something that is central to their general election 2015 strategy. .
This is further evidenced in the poll conducted of the Left Foot Forward readership. This poll should have, if things are going well for Labour, shown massive support for Labour. Instead it shows the Green Part picking up 34% and even the Lib Dems still claiming 17% of the vote.
As the editor of Left foot forward, James Bloodworth, noted:
This should perhaps concern Labour, as their message still appears not to be winning over many naturally left-of-centre voters – despite their recently announcing a raft of identifiably social democratic policies.
Labour might well come out on top in these elections but it is far from a ringing endorsement.
Today’s Opinium/Daily Mail poll reinforces the crux of this post showing Labour polling just 25% and The Greens increasing their share of the vote.
2 responses to “Bad news for Labour: Latest polling before European Parliament elections”
It’ll be interesting to see how the final results compare to the polls, as I see two issues that the polls can’t take account of.
Firstly there’s the issue that a lot of people go in to the station with one intention but then can’t bear to vote against their old tribal allegiances. The 2010 election was a great example of this, the debates produced a massive bounce for the Lib Dems in the polls, but they ended up losing seats.
And secondly there’s the demonstrated idea that “nasty” parties tend to do better in elections than at polls as even in anonymised polls people often hate to admit that they’re going to vote for them.
Combine the two and I really have no idea how this one is going to pan out.
I think you are calling a UKIP victory and a reinforcement of the status quo *sad face*